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Is globalization taking over a “new previous” type ?, Opinions & Blogs Information

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Is globalization taking over a “new previous” type ?, Opinions & Blogs Information

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Globalization, roughly defined as “the freer movement and flow of capital, goods, people and maybe even culture” is on the decline. It is claimed by some that the world is in the midst of a “deglobalization” in which countries are pulling back and withdrawing from the globalization processes and imposing the proverbial walls on them. In this scheme, the cooling off of relations between the United States and China as the harbinger of Cold War 2.0 is seen as emblematic of the new trend accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

While it is evident that globalization has moved in waves historically, with the last wave ending in the final decades of the 20th century, its seeds were sown shortly after the end of World War II. The multilateral institutional firmament of the twin sisters World Bank and IMF, the United Nations and its allied organs, the reconstruction of Europe through and through the Marshall Plan and the formation of the European Union, among other factors and thematic issues, laid the foundation for the third wave of globalization.

During this initial phase of the “golden years” there were many flows of trade and capital between the so-called “triad” – Western Europe, Japan and North America. Globalization was essentially a “triad phenomenon” until the opening of China in 1978, which not only led to enormous economic growth and development of the country, but together with India’s accession in the early 1990s, its zigzag dissolution in parts of Africa, globalization global, so to speak. The trad became an aspect of the processes and forms of globalization.

But in retrospect, the 2008 financial crisis became a catalyst for problems that were brewing under the surface patina of globalization. Declining flows of trade, capital, and cultural changes in much of the western world, mainly through immigration, created a concoction that resulted in populist politics led by the leading figure of globalization, the United States. In this sense, 2016 was the year that changed everything when you give the phenomenon a sensational twist. That year, Donald Trump assumed the highest office in the United States and became its President, with a message that resonated with many Americans. With his concise mantra and slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Trump set out to dismantle globalization.

Trump’s success in trying to roll back globalization has been mixed, but because globalization, or a withdrawal from it, has become a valence problem in the United States and other parts of the western world, and a power-political one with security problems, is with China globalization is on the decline. However, this withdrawal appears to be partial as the potential for trade and capital flows re-emerges in the triad of North America, Western Europe, and Japan. The thrust, intensity, and nature of these trade flows are unlikely to be the same as they were in the post-war period, given a number of factors.

At the same time, the phenomenon in and within the virtual networks created by globalization remains as intense as ever, perhaps even exacerbated by the trends induced by COVID-19 – online shopping, working from home, etc. When deglobalization comes on Has gained momentum, globalization has not died. Shape and shape have changed. In the world of technology networks of a virtual nature it seems as intense as ever, but in commerce, capital, people and technology it seems to be taking a different shape and form.

From an economic development and poverty reduction perspective, this change may not be overly optimistic for developing and poor countries, especially those who should benefit from globalization. But that’s the way it is at the moment. Will globalization gain in importance again? The answer to this question cannot be definitely answered, but if the story is a guide, eventually it will. But for globalization to work, it has to work for everyone and not for a small part or an upper class of society. Granted, this claim is a clich√©, but there is no other alternative if the phenomenon is to be workable.

All in all, the world will both globalize and deglobalize itself in the coming decades, and the trend-setting impulses for both will lie in politics and not the other way around. That is, if politics followed globalization in the last decades of the 20th century, this time globalization will follow politics. Time will tell whether this is optimistic or not.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

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